Many weapon systems sent to Ukraine or deployed by Russia have been characterised by at least some commentators as potential "game changers."

From Javelin to Lancet and the Leopard 2, many new systems have been introduced and/or scaled up in use over the course of the war, and some have entered in dramatic fashion (as with the recent ATACMS strikes).

In this episode I review a sample of "game changer" systems, discuss how we might evaluate whether or not a system deserves the title, and figure out what each did, or didn't, do to change the war in Ukraine.

Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU

Caveats & Comments:
Correction relating to the stated number of ATGM launchers and missiles in UA in 2022 - the 950 launchers are for relatively modern, long range systems. They exclude thousands of NLAWs, 9K111 and 9K115-2 missiles in UA hands.

All normal caveats and comments apply.

Relevant Reading/sourcing
Credit to all featured twitter post creators including but not limited to - @COUPSURE, @Tatarigami_UA, and @Rebel44CZ

Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine – Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds
static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf

Rusia’s Artillery War in Ukraine: Challenges and Innovations – Sam Cranny-Evans:
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-artillery-war-ukraine-challenges-and-innovations

Stormbreak: Fighting Through Russian Defences in Ukraine’s 2023 Offensive – Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds
static.rusi.org/Stormbreak-Special-Report-web-final_0.pdf

Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022 -Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi, Jack Watling, Oleksandr V Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds
static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf

Reporting on Javelin April 2022
wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-forces-get-crash-course-on-javelin-missiles-from-u-s-volunteers-11651224602

Featured Warzone article featuring revetments
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/widespread-destruction-seen-after-blasts-at-russian-base-in-crimea

Lancet reported on
reuters.com/world/europe/cheap-russian-drone-menace-ukrainian-troops-equipment-2023-06-28/
rferl.org/a/lancet-drones-russia-invasion-counteroffensive-kamikaze/32493513.html

The Airbase strike
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/10/a-russian-drone-just-knocked-out-a-ukrainian-attack-jet-on-the-ground-at-its-base/?sh=3dd68049ae2f
businessinsider.com/video-russian-lancet-drone-range-hits-ukrainian-mig-29-jet-2023-9
twitter.com/squatsons/status/1711835637211607527

Foreign components in Lancet
pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2023/08/28/7417354/

And the successor:
en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/russia_is_developing_the_scalpel_kamikaze_drone_a_cheaper_analogue_of_the_lancet_uav-7915.html

2023 Javelin reporting
washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/05/ukraine-war-javelins-russia-tanks/

Various articles on hyped systems
wsj.com/articles/himars-transform-battle-for-ukraine-modern-warfare-11665169716
reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-has-destroyed-50-ammunition-depots-using-himars-war-with-russia-2022-07-25/
en.topwar.ru/226738-pressa-ssha-ukrainskaja-armija-lishilas-srazu-dvuh-shvedskih-tankov-strv122-unichtozhennyh-rossijskimi-dronami-lancet.html
kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-the-first-set-of-refurbished-leopard-tanks-from-poland/
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/04/ukrainian-troops-recovered-one-of-their-damaged-strv-122-tanks-in-time-for-the-tank-to-meet-the-president/?sh=6e41797a7b4b
forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/01/19/why-russias-terminator-vehicle-might-be-the-next-stage-in-tank-evolution/?sh=7e58ffed6228
newsweek.com/how-american-m777-howitzers-turning-tide-ukraine-war-russia-1705184

Featured images of artillery cages
rferl.org/a/makeshift-armor-ukraine-war-invasion-mad-max/32369222.html
reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/166lx4h/ukrainian_m109_with_antilancet_cage/

CSIS on Javelin
csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks
csis.org/analysis/saint-javelin-limited-supply

Timestamps
00:00:00 — Game Changers
00:01:30 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:17 — Understanding "Game Changers"
00:08:41 — Javelin (and Other ATGMS)
00:15:50 — HIMARS, GMLRS & TOS-1A
00:26:34 — ATACMS
00:39:58 — the Lancet
00:49:58 — Leopards & Terminators
01:00:47 — Reflecting on "Game Changers"
01:03:07 — Conclusion
01:04:22 — Channel Update

• Game changers in Ukraine - Evaluating ATACMS, Lancet & systems that changed the war (or didn't) ( Download)
• More Game Changers (and Failures) in Ukraine - From Starlink & Electronic warfare to Hypersonics ( Download)
• 🇺🇸 🚀 Will ATACMS Be Ukraine's Game Changer 🇺🇦 #russiaukrainewar #usa #ukraine #russia #geopolitics ( Download)
• Storm Shadow & Long Range Weapons in Ukraine - Russian adaptations & Ukraine's growing capabilities ( Download)
• Disappointing Systems in Ukraine - From imprecise precision munitions to explosive IFVs ( Download)
• Ukraine: ATACMS long-range missiles from the US have arrived | DW News ( Download)
• Cluster Munitions & Artillery in Ukraine - Attrition, Ammunition & Adaptation in 2023 ( Download)
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• Russian Escalation Strategy in Ukraine - The North Korean Deal, Kharkiv & Putin's Ceasefire demand ( Download)
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