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As we head into December, Ukraine is getting colder and the campaign friendly weather of mid-year is long gone. Despite that Russia has launched perhaps its largest offensive of 2023, targeting the salient around the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka - burning through armour and manpower in the face of a stubborn Ukrainian defence.
At the same time, with it now clear Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia offensive will not reach its objectives this year, Ukraine has escalated its efforts on a different front, establishing several small bridgeheads across the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast.
In this episode, I look at some of the key Ukrainian and Russian offensive efforts of late 2023, examine the data we have on losses and attrition, and ask what the fighting might tell us about the state of the forces involved, and the way this war is being fought.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading:
The sourcing for this episode will look slightly different to normal as it relied more heavily on released footage, imagery, attestations from involved parties etc.
As noted in the video - credit to a number of sources for their work analysing, collecting or compiling the lost data relied on here (including Warspotting, Oryx, Frontintelligence Insight (and @,Tatarigami_UA) @Naalsio26, @Rebel44CZ etc.)
Article in the Economist by Ukraine's Commander in Chief on the current positional nature of the war and Ukraine's requirements
economist.com/by-invitation/2023/11/01/the-commander-in-chief-of-ukraines-armed-forces-on-how-to-win-the-war
Featured TASS article on Russian war aims
tass.com/politics/1556743?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.com
Ukrainian source on the 350 armoured vehicles claim used for comparison with VC loss data
kyivindependent.com/military-russia-loses-7-000-soldiers-350-armored-vehicles-at-avdiivka/
Spotting of LMUR in Jan 2023
defence-blog.com/russias-mi-28-helicopter-spotted-with-new-advanced-missile-in-ukraine/
Source image for the older Dnipro raids
reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/13juzul/ukrainian_special_operations_forces_sso_operating/
Various example reports on Avdiivka & the Dnipro crossings
mil.in.ua/en/news/bradley-ifvs-and-leopard-2-tanks-deployed-to-defend-avdiivka/
dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-russia-renews-attacks-on-avdiivka/live-67540356
themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/13/russias-military-announces-then-backtracks-on-regrouping-in-southern-ukraine-a83083
bbc.com/news/world-europe-67058953
businessinsider.com/ukraine-pushed-russian-forces-back-2-5-miles-from-dnipro-river-banks-2023-11
10-15,000 FPV figure being reported
mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-manufacturers-supply-up-to-15-000-fpv-drones-per-month-to-the-defense-forces/
Corrections & Caveats:
All usual caveats and comments obviously apply, including but not limited to those specifically set out in this video.
To those I'll just reinforce that while visually confirmed loss data is, in my view, a very useful tool when trying to analyse events in Ukraine - it is obviously far from perfect. Please remember that whenever reality and neat analysis collide, reality wins.
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:25 — What Am I Talking About?
00:04:08 — Pre-winter Objectives
00:06:07 — Zaporizhzhia
00:09:46 — Kherson
00:19:13 — Avdiivka
00:33:16 — Assessing Losses
00:52:38 — Trends & Adaptations
00:59:31 — Observations
01:04:51 — Conclusion
01:05:38 — Channel Update
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- Ukraine's Planned Counteroffensive - force readiness, leaks, politics & expectations ( Download)
